Bundesliga · 2025/26 ·
St. Pauli
2 to 1
VfB Stuttgart
Match Entertainment Rating
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Why 3.0 stars
- 3 goals contributed to the entertainment score (14.4 points).
- 10 shots on target, a typical count: 67th percentile of 2025/26 matches (10.8 points).
- The score stayed within one goal for 61% of the match (10.7 points).
- 1 penalty awarded during play added 2.5 drama points.
How the rating adds up
52.4 / 100 match score
- Entertainment
- Competitiveness
- Drama
Entertainment
40% weightGoals and shots on target.
Component score0.63 of 1.00
Points added25.2 of 40
- Goals3 goals0.60 × 60%14.4 pts
- Shots on target10 in the match; 67th percentile of 2025/26 matches0.67 × 40%10.8 pts
Competitiveness
35% weightHow close the final score was, and how long the match stayed within one goal.
Component score0.71 of 1.00
Points added24.7 of 35
- Final margindecided by 1 goal0.80 × 50%14.0 pts
- Within one goalfor 61% of the 90 minutes (stoppage time not counted)0.61 × 50%10.7 pts
Drama
25% weightLate result-changing goals, comebacks, equalisers, red cards, penalties and shootouts.
Component score0.10 of 1.00
Points added2.5 of 25
- Penalties awarded1 penalty awarded during play; counts up to 2+0.102.5 pts
A component score runs from 0 to 1. Points added are its share of the 100-point match score (score × weight). The stars come from the match score, using cutoffs fixed on the 2025/26 season.
Goals
- 35′Goal · St. Pauli1–0
- Half-time · 1–0
- 55′Penalty · St. Pauli2–0
- 90′Goal · VfB Stuttgart2–1
- Full time · 2–1
Goals only, from Understat. Minutes can differ by one from broadcast graphics. Red cards are counted in the statistics but not placed here: the league data has no card times.
Match statistics
| Statistic | St. Pauli | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 1 |
| Shots on target | 7 | 3 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| xGUnderstat · context only, not in the rating | 1.66 | 0.91 |
| Penalties awardedboth teams, during play | 1 | |
Labels
- Upset
- Domestic only: winner's de-vigged closing probability of 25% or less. Here: the winner's pre-match chance was 20% (average closing odds).
Labels describe the match; they never change its score.
About this rating
- Complete rating. Every rating input was available for this match.
- The stars are a data-driven entertainment heuristic built from goals, shots on target, how close the score stayed and match events. They are not a judgement of football quality.
- xG is shown for context only and is not part of the rating.
- Data: Understat (goals, xG), football-data.co.uk (shots on target, cards, odds). Club crests are trademarks of their clubs; images via ESPN.
Technical details
- Match ID
- Bundesliga-2025-us:30410
- Source record
- understat+football-data · 30410
- Rating method
- mer-1.0.0
- Calibration
- cal-2025-v1 (2025/26, frozen)
- Input fingerprint
- 7eb94b91614d2a447167d6c4c121712a9605f9fe5b4e9f828424685e5fbc7641
- Revision
- 1 · rated 2026-10-14