Bundesliga · 2025/26 ·
Mainz 05
1 to 3
Union Berlin
Match Entertainment Rating
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Why 4.0 stars
- 4 goals contributed strongly to the entertainment score (18.0 points).
- 12 shots on target, a high count: 85th percentile of 2025/26 matches (13.6 points).
- The score was never more than one goal apart (17.5 points).
- A result-changing goal at 88′ added 12.5 drama points.
How the rating adds up
72.3 / 100 match score
- Entertainment
- Competitiveness
- Drama
Entertainment
40% weightGoals and shots on target.
Component score0.79 of 1.00
Points added31.6 of 40
- Goals4 goals0.75 × 60%18.0 pts
- Shots on target12 in the match; 85th percentile of 2025/26 matches0.85 × 40%13.6 pts
Competitiveness
35% weightHow close the final score was, and how long the match stayed within one goal.
Component score0.70 of 1.00
Points added24.5 of 35
- Final margindecided by 2 goals0.40 × 50%7.0 pts
- Within one goalfor 100% of the 90 minutes (stoppage time not counted)1.00 × 50%17.5 pts
Drama
25% weightLate result-changing goals, comebacks, equalisers, red cards, penalties and shootouts.
Component score0.65 of 1.00
Points added16.2 of 25
- Late result-changing goalat 88′+0.5012.5 pts
- Equalisers1 equaliser+0.153.8 pts
A component score runs from 0 to 1. Points added are its share of the 100-point match score (score × weight). The stars come from the match score, using cutoffs fixed on the 2025/26 season.
Goals
- 38′Goal · Union Berlin0–1
- Half-time · 0–1
- 48′Goal · Mainz 051–1
- 88′Goal · Union Berlin Late Drama1–2
- 90+1′Goal · Union Berlin1–3
- Full time · 1–3
Goals only, from Understat. Minutes can differ by one from broadcast graphics. Red cards are counted in the statistics but not placed here: the league data has no card times.
Match statistics
| Statistic | Mainz 05 | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 3 |
| Shots on target | 3 | 9 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| xGUnderstat · context only, not in the rating | 2.10 | 2.94 |
| Penalties awardedboth teams, during play | 0 | |
Labels
- Late Drama
- Result-changing goal at 88' or later (stoppage included) or in extra time; second legs also on the aggregate. Here: goal at 88′.
- Upset
- Domestic only: winner's de-vigged closing probability of 25% or less. Here: the winner's pre-match chance was 22% (average closing odds).
Labels describe the match; they never change its score.
About this rating
- Complete rating. Every rating input was available for this match.
- The stars are a data-driven entertainment heuristic built from goals, shots on target, how close the score stayed and match events. They are not a judgement of football quality.
- xG is shown for context only and is not part of the rating.
- Data: Understat (goals, xG), football-data.co.uk (shots on target, cards, odds). Club crests are trademarks of their clubs; images via ESPN.
Technical details
- Match ID
- Bundesliga-2025-us:30517
- Source record
- understat+football-data · 30517
- Rating method
- mer-1.0.0
- Calibration
- cal-2025-v1 (2025/26, frozen)
- Input fingerprint
- bf94fb556d138546df90fa85eb37752ef090194db0e4cfa9b6e4a3d11d59e660
- Revision
- 1 · rated 2026-10-14