Bundesliga · 2026/27 ·
Hamburger SV
1 to 0
VfB Stuttgart
Who led, minute by minute88′
Why 3.5 stars
- 8 shots on target, a typical count: 42nd percentile of 2025/26 matches (6.7 points).
- 1 goal added a little to the entertainment score (4.8 points).
- The score was never more than one goal apart (17.5 points).
- A result-changing goal at 88′ added 12.5 drama points.
How the rating adds up
55.5 / 100 match score
- Entertainment
- Competitiveness
- Drama
Entertainment
40% weightGoals and shots on target.
Component score0.29 of 1.00
Points added11.5 of 40
- Goals1 goal0.20 × 60%4.8 pts
- Shots on target8 in the match; 42nd percentile of 2025/26 matches0.42 × 40%6.7 pts
Competitiveness
35% weightHow close the final score was, and how long the match stayed within one goal.
Component score0.90 of 1.00
Points added31.5 of 35
- Final margindecided by 1 goal0.80 × 50%14.0 pts
- Within one goalfor 100% of the 90 minutes (stoppage time not counted)1.00 × 50%17.5 pts
Drama
25% weightLate result-changing goals, comebacks, equalisers, red cards, penalties and shootouts.
Component score0.50 of 1.00
Points added12.5 of 25
- Late result-changing goalat 88′+0.5012.5 pts
A component score runs from 0 to 1. Points added are its share of the 100-point match score (score × weight). The stars come from the match score, using cutoffs fixed on the 2025/26 season.
Goals
- Half-time · 0–0
- 88′Goal · Hamburger SV Late Drama1–0
- Full time · 1–0
Goals only, from Understat. Minutes can differ by one from broadcast graphics. Red cards are counted in the statistics but not placed here: the league data has no card times.
Match statistics
| Statistic | Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 0 |
| Shots on target | 3 | 5 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| xGUnderstat · context only, not in the rating | 1.67 | 2.64 |
| Penalties awardedboth teams, during play | 0 | |
Labels
- Late Drama
- Result-changing goal at 88' or later (stoppage included) or in extra time; second legs also on the aggregate. Here: goal at 88′.
- Upset
- Domestic only: winner's de-vigged closing probability of 25% or less. Here: the winner's pre-match chance was 22% (average closing odds).
Labels describe the match; they never change its score.
About this rating
- Complete rating. Every rating input was available for this match.
- The stars are a data-driven entertainment heuristic built from goals, shots on target, how close the score stayed and match events. They are not a judgement of football quality.
- xG is shown for context only and is not part of the rating.
- Data: Understat (goals, xG), football-data.co.uk (shots on target, cards, odds). Club crests are trademarks of their clubs; images via ESPN.
Technical details
- Match ID
- Bundesliga-2026-us:32291
- Source record
- understat+football-data · 32291
- Rating method
- mer-1.0.0
- Calibration
- cal-2025-v1 (2025/26, frozen)
- Input fingerprint
- abd7dc9a1f73f34a9f1688d6a8e69d341392a48d0c230ffd98733b223b95e48f
- Revision
- 1 · rated 2026-10-20